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OVER-DEVELOPMENT CAUSES MAJOR ECONOMIC DOWNTURN IN BORACAY

By Gil delos Santos

Last quarter of 2023, when we first felt the tourism decline in Boracay, SB Malay consulted or invited me as a resource person on a stakeholders consultation. 

We have presented a comprehensive picture of Boracay tourism that time. 

As an outcome, they have implemented some of our recommendations. 

Today, after a couple of years, malayo na narating. Pero meron pa pwede ikakalayo. 

To start with, we are looking at the wrong problem. That’s why our solutions don’t match. We acknowledge that there are ground works that truly need fixing — like for instance the nuisance vendors, accessibility and fees issues, infrastructure, myopic policies, and others. However, there are bigger issues which are not often discussed.

We target Boracay to be a MICE destination but the event organizers are in pain in securing permits because of the overpriced licenses — which in some cases, the bigger amount is not declared to the municipal treasury — the LoveBoracay events for instance, most millions went to personal pockets. Under the table extortion is hurting and killing our industry.

Let’s go to the economic challenges which everyone sees the “low” tourist arrival as the culprit. That’s why the focus solution is marketing. One thing we oversee is the factor of over-development.
Let’s do the mathematics again:

172,000 Tourist Arrival (July 2025)

CURRENT ARRIVAL BASIS
5,733 Daily arrival average
÷ 2 Assumed occupant/room
= 2,866 Rooms needed daily
With 14,000 Hotel rooms in Boracay
– 2,866
= 11,134 vacant rooms daily
Equivalent to:
20% Occupancy rate for overnight stay
40% for 3D2N stay (average of the current market)
60% Vacancy means 8,400 rooms vacant daily in Boracay

---

2018 CARRYING CAPACITY BASE
6,400 Daily arrival maximum requirement
÷ 2 Assumed occupant/room
= 3,200 Rooms needed daily
With 14,000 Hotel rooms in Boracay
– 3,200
= 10,800 vacant rooms daily
Equivalent to:
23% Occupancy rate for overnight stay
46% for 3D2N stay (average of the current market — most conservative, that’s 7,560 vacant rooms daily)
69% for 3D2N stay

Note:
(1) This computations will have occupancy percentage varietions as markets are always assumed mixed when it comes to duration of stay. (2) There is another 3,000 (unofficial) unpermitted hotel rooms that can further lower the occupancy rate once the establishments acquire licenses to operate. (3) Number of restaurant operators and other businesses also doubled in recent time adding dividing factors on economic impact.

2,304,000 — is the Maximum annual tourist Arrival based on Boracay Carrying Capacity limit set in 2018.

KEYS FOR CONSIDERATION:

(1) The new carrying capacity limit of 8,000 arrivals daily is not environmentally nor socially friendly. 

(2) Marketing efforts focusing on quantity over quality is not sustainable.

(3) The tourism economic decline of Boracay is not caused by low arrival but over supply or OVER-DEVELOPMENT.

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